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Despiteeconomists’ concerns about a downturn, opinions are far from unanimous
尽管一些经济学家们担心着经济下行的态势，但也有人持不同观点。
我们面临着的是什么
No one argues with the idea that recessionsmake it more difficult to run a business. When consumers and corporations spendless money, employers lay off full-time employees and hire fewer contingentworkers. That pressures staffing firms to keep their heads above water evenwhile they plan how — if they’re smart — to reinvigorate their business oncethe recovery begins.
经济衰退无疑使企业经营变得难上加难。公司和个人的支出都在削减，雇主给正式员工们“放长假”，转而雇用临时工以降低成本。这种局面给人力资源公司造成了压力，但明智的人力资源公司同时也在做着计划，一旦经济恢复，就会立刻借势重振旗鼓。
Today, after years of steady growth, a numberof economists and business experts have expressed concern about some kind ofdownturn beginning during 2020. However, their opinions are far from unanimous.
On one hand, Wall Street’s performancedemonstrates that investors believe the economy remains strong. The Dow JonesIndustrial Average climbed more than 22% in 2019, while the S&P 500 rosenearly 29%.
经过了多年的经济稳定增长，目前许多经济学家和商业专家对2020年开始的经济衰退表示担忧。但是，也有人对此持不同观点。
一方面，华尔街的表现表明投资者相信经济将依然强劲。道琼斯工业平均指数在2019年上涨超过22％，而标准普尔500指数上涨近29％。
Off the trading floor, business leadersremained optimistic as customers kept buying their products and services,according to Mike Boro, a New York-based partner with accounting and consultingfirm PwC. His clients, who are active in industries ranging from consultingservices and technology to manufacturing and entertainment, “see the market fortheir services or products as growing.”
普华永道纽约合伙人MikeBoro表示，在交易大厅外，随着客户持续购买其产品和服务，企业领导人（对市场）仍然保持乐观态度。他的客户来自咨询服务业、技术产业、制造业、娱乐业等各个行业， “这些客户的服务或产品生意还蒸蒸日上。”MikeBoro说道。
On the other hand, some indicators hint at a slowdown.For example, the Institute for Supply Management’s US purchasing managers’index dropped to 48.1% in November, down 0.2 points from October and signalinga contraction for the fourth straight month. And although 59% of smallemployers surveyed by MetLife and the US Chamber of Commerce felt positivelyabout their local economies during 2019’s fourth quarter, the confidence ofsmall manufacturers dropped 11 points over the second and third quartersbecause of concerns about the national economy.
而另一方面，一些指标则暗示着经济增长放缓。例如，美国供应管理协会提供的数据表明采购经理人指数11月份下降到48.1％，比10月份下降了0.2点，这是连续第四个月指数呈收缩。尽管美国大都会人寿（MetLife）和美国商会（USChamber of Commerce）调查过的59％的小型雇主在2019年第四季度对当地经济持积极态度，但出于担忧，今年小型制造商的信心指数在第二和第三季度下降了11点。
“Normally [before a recession], we firststart to see the trends a little bit like we’re seeing now, where manufacturingstarts to soften a little bit,” says Debra Thorpe, Kelly Services[1]’senior VP and general manager of Americas operations. “Then, something of aneconomic magnitude happens,” such as the dot-com crash of 2000-2001 or thecredit crisis of 2008. For today’s economy to fall into a full-blown recession,Thorpe believes, “we’d need to see another big, economic or socio-economicevent.”
“通常在经济衰退之前，我们首先会看到类似目前这样的趋势，制造业首先开始有点受影响。”凯利服务公司高级副总裁兼美洲业务总经理DebraThorpe说，“然后，某种规模性的经济现象就会发生”例如2000-2001年的互联网泡沫崩溃或2008年的信用危机。Thorpe认为，如果当今的经济要陷入全面衰退，还有另一个重大的经济或社会经济事件会先出现。”
Recession’s Impact
经济衰退的影响
While a recession can make finding the rightmix of full-time and contingent staff more challenging, it can also provideorganizations with “a little bit of cover” if they need to downsize, Boroobserved. At the same time, downturns often allow businesses to better aligntheir workforce with needed technology and skills, a critical consideration ata time when technology needs and skill sets are dramatically changing. “And, itallows you to find specialized resources for certain needs without long-termemployment commitments,” Boro says.
Boro观察到，尽管经济衰退会使公司面临协同雇佣全职员工和临时员工的挑战，但如果他们需要缩减规模，灵活用工也不失为一个好办法。同时，企业的一大重要考量是在技术需求和技能组合发生巨大变化时，将其劳动力与所需的技术和技能匹配，尤其是经济低迷时更是如此。“而且，人力资源公司可以找到满足特定需求的专业资源，而无需长期雇用。” Boro说。
Not surprisingly, many industry experts say adownturn’s pain will be felt primarily among direct-hire practices. Whencompanies face a recession, that’s one of the first areas they cut back on,says Brian Pugh, vice president of IT services and staffing for AgreeYaSolutions in Folsom, California. “What they’ll do typically at the first signof a pullback is suspend those hiring budgets, and right with that goes thesuspension of being able to pay a fee,” he says. Conversely, the contract-services business has traditionally been moreinsulated from downturns. During the slowdown of the early 2000s, contractservices “may have lulled a bit, but really began jumping again as early as2003,” Pugh recalls.
不难理解，许多行业专家表示，企业将会在经济低迷时直观感受到招工带来的痛苦。“当公司面临衰退时，雇佣的开支是第一项需要被削减的。”来自美国加利福尼亚的BrianPugh说道，他是AgreeYa咨询公司的IT服务和人力资源副总裁。 “通常，在出现经济衰退的最初迹象时，公司会暂停招工的预算，随之而来的是暂停支付这方面费用。”相反，人力资源合同制服务历来更不受衰退影响。Pugh回忆说，在2000年代初的经济放缓期间，派遣合同服务的生意“可能有受到轻微影响，但很快在2003年就开始再次跳升。”
Another thing to consider is that even in arecession, businesses have work to do — and they need people to do it.Companies will always fund mission critical positions, Pugh says, “so therewill still be fee money to be had. It’s just going to be a little bit moreselective.” He believes staffing firms will continue to do a strong businesswith professional services contractors in areas such as technology, finance,accounting, engineering and science. “Demand for those skill sets is at anall-time high,” he says, “and I don’t see that demand pulling back to a pointwhere active job seekers don’t have luck finding a role.”
有一件事需要明确，即使在经济衰退期间，企业也有工作要做，而且他们需要人来做。“公司将始终为关键职位提供资金，”Pugh说，“因此，企业划分的酬劳还是会增加，只是这笔钱的流向会更具选择性。”他认为，人力资源公司将继续在技术、金融、会计、工程和科学等领域有需求的企业之间开展广泛的业务。他说：“目前这些技能的需求达到了历史最高水平，而且我认为这种需求不会回落到积极的求职者找不到工作的地步。”
At the same time, general staffing positions— such as those in administration or light industrial work — will generate lessrevenue as more low-skilled workers enter the market, demand for their servicesfalls and employers find they can fill those jobs without a staffing firm’sassistance.
同时随着越来越多的低技能劳动力进入市场，一些比较普通的职位（例如行政或者轻工业部门的岗位）可能被降低薪资。尤其是企业对服务的需求下降以及雇主发现他们可以在没有人手公司的情况下填补上述工作。
Think Long-Term
眼光放长远
Maurice Fuller, founder and CEO of theStaffingTec Conference & Expo, suggests staffing agencies prepare for adownturn in two ways.
The first may be obvious: Protect your profitstreams. “If you have too much overhead relative to the volume of job orders,then you should have some sort of plan for how you’re going to downsize yourstaffing firm,” he says. “You’ll need to downsize the number of recruiters youhave and you’ll need to downsize on the sales side.”
StaffingTec人力资源公司的创始人兼首席执行官MauriceFuller建议人力公司通过两种方式为经济下滑做好准备。
第一个可能很明显：保护公司的利润来源。他说：“如果你发现大量的派遣造成运营费用过高，就需要考虑缩减人力公司的规模。你需要减少派遣员工的数量，也需要减少销售部分的开支。”
However, there’s a balance to strike. “Some recessionsare fairly short-lived,” Fuller observes. “So, if you downsize very, veryrapidly and take out big chunks of your sales force, when the economy picksback up again and you don’t have resources on the ground, you may lose anopportunity to grow market share.”
但是，人力资源企业需要作出抉择。 Fuller指出：“某些衰退是短暂的。”“因此，如果非常非常迅速地缩减规模并淘汰大量销售人员，那么当经济再次复苏但企业没有直接可利用的资源时，可能会失去扩大市场份额的机会。”
That brings us to his second preparednesspoint: Recessions offer staffing firms “an incredible opportunity to pick upmarket share,” and they should prepare for downturns with that in mind. Hisreasoning is simple: Because fewer agencies stay in touch with employers thataren’t adding workers, those that do can build relationships and positionthemselves for better times and the resumption of hiring.
这就要提到他给出的第二个应对措施：经济衰退为人力资源公司提供了“一个难得的机会来抢占市场份额”，并且他们应该考虑到这一点在经济下滑时就做好准备。其中道理很简单：因为没几个人力资源公司在没有扩招计划的时候关注待就业的人，而那些和他们有长期合作关系的人力资源公司能在经济恢复时更好过渡和重新雇佣人力。
When the economy’s strong, hiring managersfield multiple calls from suppliers even as they try to keep up with otherresponsibilities. As those calls dwindle, they’re more available to talk toyou, Fuller says. Staffing agencies that connect with them have “a goldenopportunity” to reset their business relationship because managers have moretime to engage and consider ways to take advantage of their services. Whenbusiness picks up again, Fuller says, “you’ll be the first in line.”
当经济好的时候，企业的招聘经理要应付人力资源供应商络绎不绝的来电，同时还要兼顾其他工作。Fuller说，随着这样的电话减少，这些企业的招聘经理更愿意和你交谈。此时你的人力资源公司将获得“千载难逢的机会”来更新业务，因为这些公司的经理们有更多的时间来参与和讨论如何利用人力资源服务。Fuller说，当生意再次好转时，这时候找上门的你就是他们的首选合作伙伴。
At the same time, staffing agencies shouldcarefully consider what value they offer clients and how they can add to it.“The question is how do they add value if they’re more expensive than goingdirect?” PwC’s Boro says.
One way they add value is by mitigatingemployment risk. When an agency offers benefits and handles discipline andother administrative responsibilities, it both relieves the employer’s burdensand provides employees with a sense of belonging.
同时，人力资源公司应仔细考虑他们为客户提供的价值以及如何为客户增值。“问题是，如果人力资源服务比直接雇人的成本高，这项服务将如何体现增值？”普华永道的Boro说。
服务增加价值的一种体现是减轻就业风险。当服务机构负责提供福利、维持纪律和肩负其他行政职责时，雇主的负担可以减轻，员工也有更多归属感。
Another advantage agencies offer is theirability to be nimble with their talent pools. Staffing firms “should have agood understanding of the talent and skill sets they offer but must be ready torespond to the dynamics of companies who hire outside of staffing agencies orbuild their own candidate pools,” Boro says. Having specific talents availableand accessible can save employers the challenges involved with going to theopen markets by themselves. For staffing firms, that means knowing the talent youhave and how best to suit them up.
服务商提供的另一个优势是他们能适应公司对员工技能需求的多变性。人力资源公司“应该对他们提供的人才和技能有很好的了解，但也必须准备好应对外部雇用人员或建立自己的候选人才资源库。”Boro说。拥有随时可调用的专业人才可以省去人力资源公司自己进入人才市场时面临的挑战。对于人力资源公司而言，这意味着怎样了解现有的人才和如何最好地匹配他们的工作。
Always Be Flexible
永远保持灵活性
All this means flexibility is important tonavigating a recession. But remember that in today’s era of quickly evolvingtechnology and work, flexibility’s an important component of succeedingthroughout the economy’s general rises and falls. “I think the savvy companies thatsurvive recessions are the ones who have built a resilient operating model,”Kelly Service’s Thorpe says.
Technology plays a key role here, shebelieves. Staffing firms that leverage technology to allow their professionalsto recruit from anywhere “are going to be the companies that weather therecession stronger than others that have maybe stayed with their traditionalmodel.”
以上的所有都告诉我们一个道理：保持灵活性对于应对经济衰退至关重要。请记住，在当今技术和行业日新月异的时代，灵活性是组成整个经济体兴衰成败的重要部分。Kelly服务公司的Thorpe说：“我认为能够在经济衰退中幸存的那些精明的公司是建立了弹性经营模式。”
她认为，人力资源公司的专业技能在这其中起着关键作用。人力资源公司将撬动企业用专业技能从各方面招到合适的人，“这样的人力资源公司将无论经济多么动荡都能以其经营模式生存下来”
And be sure to apply the idea of flexibleoperations to how your staffing firm develops its own workforce. That meansstaffing should be practicing what it preaches, using flexible labor andflexible recruiting “that helps us through the ebbs and flows and cyclicalityof our normal business,” Thorpe says. “The staffing companies that can showthat they’ve built a resilient model, one that’s less reliant on brick-and-mortarand more reliant on technology and coverage, are going to be the ones that comeout strong in the end.”
她还提到人力资源公司一定要将灵活经营的理念应用到如何发展自己的劳动力上。这意味着人事部门应该践行它所宣扬的，使用灵活的劳动力和灵活的招聘，“这有助于我们度过业务进行期间的突发状况，”Thorpe说。“人力资源公司本身能够表明自己已经建立了一种弹性模式，这种模式不那么依赖传统行业套路，而是更依赖技术和覆盖范围，这种思路会让公司最终变得强大。”
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